The IT Skeptic - Comments for "Batten down the hatches"

Now is the time for service management to show it can deliver

ianclayton — Sun, 08 Feb 2009 18:53:51 +0000

Its a gloomy business world out there for sure. It will pass, hopefully before I have to resort to cutting grass and cleaning pools. That said, if you take a moment to remind yourself of the true promise of a service management initiative, now should be the time we have all been waiting for. It is now that we should be able to march into a prospective stakeholder's office and announce we can help. Service Management has always been about ensuring the right quality of service is provided to the right folks at the right time, etc etc... at an affordable price.cost.

A Service Management initiative should help target waste, remove it, ensure resources are applied to known levers that result in customer satisfaction and success. We provide information systems as a service as IBM once lauded in the 80s. Our customers prefer to use IT as they would 'software as a service' providers. Service management is meant to help us transform IT organizations from managing infrastructure to managing service and customer relationships. So what happened.

Back to my earlier red shirt society comment. Who put a red shirt on the service management initiative? If you are out there now thinking your service management project is vulnerable to being parked or worse, take a moment to return to the initial promise of service management. Its not about implementing an onerous best practice framework, or processes, or even achieving a specific level of maturity. Its about providing service in a manner that customer want and need.

There is no better time to do service management as it was intended than now...

The Long Wave

Visitor — Sun, 08 Feb 2009 00:10:55 +0000

Jones has picked up on a pattern of long term fluctuations within capitalism called the "long wave". There is an argument that periodic over- and under-investment of capital is a cause of long waves.

This remark by a Nebraska farmboy, written in the 1970s, sounds utterly perfect in describing todays conditions: "The long wave brings an overbuilding of the capital sectors during which they grow beyond the capital output rate needed for long-term equilibrium." He predicted, in the 1970s, the next cycle of the tipping of capital markets "early in the 21st century." Spooky.

The pace of the wave is an expression of the internal dynamics of capitalism. The expansion is ended by a depression during which the excess capital is physically worn out and financially depreciated on the books. It is this expression of cyclical behavior that, in turn, shapes the conditions favorable to technological innovation. This implies that technological innovation is not the cause but the effect of this cyclical behavior.

Schumpeter explains the mechanism as "creative destruction". It involves the self-ordering of emerging sectors from existing capabilities (e.g. the unemployed ITSM chap in his mom's basement or cheap firesale electronics).

For example, Schokley using Einstein's quantum theory to develop the transistor for radio and television, Berners-Lee using DARPA's protocols to create the web, or Ford's combining Old's assembly line invention with conveyor belts to create automotive mass production. Each of these sparked the end of a deep recession.

Mensch calls this the interplay between stagnation and innovation ("s-shape curve"). The old economic system becomes powerless and unrest emerges. This sparks the speed and urgency for innovation, as well as the availability of cheap resources. The result is clusters of emerging industries that move ideas from theory to practice; sparking and leading the next upward swing of the long wave.

(This is why the approach of "let markets be free" is such a clumsy tool. Its like ships without oars or sails left at the mercy of mighty ocean currents.)

Bob Jones on recession

skeptic — Sat, 07 Feb 2009 22:47:00 +0000

One of New Zealand's sharpest minds is Bob Jones, a wealthy real estate businessman and ascerbic writer. This from In Business Wellington magazine:

We're moving into a recession which will be deep and long... The myth of the central bank's ability to smooth out the business cycle will be laid to rest for another generation... [Recession] is excellent news. Just as booms are wonderful... so too the inevitable night and day sequence of ensuing busts are equally healthy...
...busts always end. The next generation of great fortunes will be made by those who act at the inevitable onset of the economic spring... The utter predictability of this patterned behaviour... will be lost on most, who in commercial terms will do as they always have and go with the mob, which is nowhere.

ITIL Service Manager - Honorary member of the "red shirt society

ianclayton — Wed, 24 Dec 2008 03:38:38 +0000

Ken

For some reason your comment made me think of the Star Trek Red Shirt Society. Given the fact the economy is taking a bungee jump of a very high place with a very, very long chord, analysts are already making smoke signals that IT management should re prioritize their projects - now. For those in the ITIL funny farm that includes you, and all service management initiatives merrily plodding along replacing processes or maturing their capability. If you are not delivering some tangible bottom line benefit within 90 days - watch out for a red shirt under the Xmas tree.

I've recently added a pastel mauve (thats grey/purple to non-French) ITIL Expert badge to the red one I earned many years ago as an ITIL Service Manager. I'm hoping it offers me some level of protection but frankly -I've taken to keeping some rosary beeds in my pockets 24x7. 2009 will be the year of the 'red shirt society'.

Unless of course your name is Scotty. He seems to be the ONLY member of the security team that survived all the shows. But then he was the token minority person - Scotsman. (yes I am English - bring it on)

I'm in the mood to tackle that Pink Verify blog now....

Layoff at one of the big ATOs

ITIL citizen — Fri, 19 Dec 2008 14:20:49 +0000

I agree with you James, I know of one major ITIL ATO that had to recently lay off a chunk of delivery staff..............

A sign of bad times to come? Tough times demand tough people.

Improving the herd

skeptic — Fri, 19 Dec 2008 09:49:53 +0000

There are those who argue that we need recessions, that they are a natural part of the cycle. We need them to blow out the pipes, cull the herd, prune the dead wood, trim the fat... The strong prosper while the weak die.

Good for the good, bad for the rest

JamesFinister — Fri, 19 Dec 2008 09:25:50 +0000

I agree with the view that the alst recession was good for those with the experience to offer real help to clients. The consultants who will suffer are the ones with limited experience who only really know how to deliver cash cow ITIL assements and projects. The winners will be those who can make the connection between ITSM and business benefit/survival concrete.

not the slowest

skeptic — Fri, 19 Dec 2008 09:04:25 +0000

Keeping ahead is essential. In fact the guy who gets shot on real patrols is often the guy at the back. Companies lay off the least valuable, or at any rate they lay off whoever their f***ed-up metrics system tells them are the least valuable (bitterness coming through from my experiences with my past employer laying off some of the best minds in the company due to facile metrics and inept managers). The analogy I prefer is of a group of people outrunning a lion. You don't have to be fastest. And you don't have to be faster than a lion -you can't. You just have to be not the slowest. Or not in the slowest third...

And you need to outrun the lion which is your employer's assessment of you, not yours. i.e. never mind what you think is important: worry about what they think is important. Deliver to the KPIs they use when they set the lions loose.

Likewise for independent consultants; never mind what you think you should be doing - sell the services the customers want. And if you can get right out in front, that is great, that dififerentiates you. But if you can't, just try to stay in the front half of the pack, OK?

Recession is not necessarily a bad thing for ITSM consultants

aroos — Fri, 19 Dec 2008 07:38:46 +0000

I agree, this is just the intro, the real recession is on the way but recession treats people differently. I jumped out of a safe big corporation in 1990 when Finland went to a deep recession. Unemployment was stellar but it-people actually had time and money for process improvement. At the same time they need to lay off their internal deveploment staff. It was harder to find consulting in the boom of 2000 as everyone was so busy creating new internet businesses.

I think this website is quite valuable, there is SO much bullshit in circulation and people tend to be too un-skeptical. Try to hang on.

Br Aale

Stay out in front...

kengon — Fri, 19 Dec 2008 06:03:57 +0000

Skep,

I read the McKinsey article with great interest. We're not done by a long shot. As these derivatives continue to unwind, it's going to get all the messier. It's not just real estate. The same games have been played with commercial paper as well. Two good books to read, if you want to get your head around what we're in, are:

"Bad Money" by Kevin Phillips
"The Trillion Dollar Meltdown" by Charles R. Morris

So, while there is a ton of bad news, that's not the end of the story.

In war movies, when the squad is out on patrol, it always seems like the guy at the front is the one that gets taken out first. Makes for an easy target, I guess. Unfortunately, many people seem to operate this way. Don't stand out. Just go along. Keep up with the pack. I don't think that this is bad, but in times like these, I think it's a stupid bet.

I think that our current circumstances are a call to action. Those that have the chops need to get out front and lead -- whatever it is where your passion and capabilities come together. Those that don't have the chops need to invest and develop them. At a minimum, each of us can focus on adding value each day. I firmly believe that those who can demonstrate they can produce value consistently and are not willing to "just go along" (and get beat up) will be fine. The next few years may be tough and chaotic, but I see this as a time of enormous opportunity.

Yes, mitigating your risks and preparing for the worst is called for, but not at the expense of getting out there and making something happen. I think that not doing so is a great way to make yourself an easy target.

I'm staying out in front, whatever the risks might be.
kengon